The dots are not a great forecaster of future rate moves,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has warned, but every quarter the financial universe ponders the FOMC’s dot plot as though it were a ...

As 2024 illustrated, zealous attention placed on small shifts in the median rate projection isn’t always a useful guide to the economic outlook.

The last few years have undermined both premises. All the dot plot really does is make plain that many economic variables are entirely unpredictable and that the Fed does not have a better crystal ...

Every three months since January 2012, the Federal Reserve has sent analysts scurrying by updating its “dot plot,” which has become the de facto monetary policy forecast of the US central bank ...

The Federal Reserve's latest dot plot (page 4)For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Music by Drop Electric.

The dot plot tells the public what the Fed anticipates doing with the fed funds rate in the years to come. Four times a year, the 19 members of the Federal Open Market Committee predict what they ...

The dot plot increases transparency over Fed operations, according to Julia Coronado, president and founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, who used to work for the Fed’s board of governors.

The central bank left interest rates unchanged in a range of 5.25%-5.5% at its meeting that concluded on Wednesday. Read more: What the Fed rate decision means for your money Along with its policy ...

As an example, the dot plot released in December 2023 (below) showed a range of participants expectations from a low of 3.875%, a high of 5.37% and a median of 4.625% for year-end 2024 forecast.

They say the surprise to us came in the dot plot where the median member expects another 125 basis points of hikes by year end and a terminal policy rate of 4.5% to 4.75, almost a third of the ...

The dot plot, decoded. When the central bank releases its Summary of Economic Projections each quarter, Fed watchers focus obsessively on one part in particular: the so-called dot plot.