I was preparing for my early morning class back in January 2025 when I received a notice regarding an asteroid called 2024 YR4. It said the probability it could hit Earth was unusually high. As ...

A research group has created a new model to calculate the probability of the occurrence of localized clusters caused by novel coronavirus infections. Led by Shingo Iwami at Nagoya University with ...

But while the regular season was careening toward a dramatic finish, we were hard at work creating a live in-game win probability model — and we’re pretty damn excited to share it.

The probability distributions produced by a Monte Carlo model create a picture of risk. That picture is an effective way to convey the results to others, such as superiors or prospective investors.